Scenario Planning

Scenario planning can help organisations to plan long-term by developing hypotheses to enable a vision of what might happen in the future. This article looks at some of the leading thinkers, the scenario planning process and some of the advantages and disadvantages.

Assumption Based Planning (ABP) is a planning and decision-making tool developed by James A Dewar of the Rand Corporation.

Lawrence Wilkinson’s article, 'How to Build Scenarios', outlines the basic components necessary to create an effective scenario strategy within an organisation.

Idon Associates is an international consultancy, specialising in strategic thinking. Their approach to scenario planning is outlined in this article.

As a former coordinator of worldwide planning for Royal Dutch/Shell, Arie de Geus is well schooled in the subject of scenario planning and future management. His book, 'The Living Company', is a study of how large corporations can improve their prospects for survival.

The name Kees van der Heijden is synonymous with the art of scenario planning. This article explores van der Heijden’s thoughts on how scenario planning can give organisations the much sought after competitive edge.

Stewart Brand is exactly the kind of off-the-wall thinker that scenario planners adore. His desire and ability to continually keep pace with changing environments and technologies has led him to become one of the most respected futurists around.

Peter Schwartz is a world-renowned expert on future management and scenario planning. He believes that scenario planning is an essential tool for taking the long view in a world of great uncertainty. Here we look at the reasons behind his thinking.

In his book, 'The Living Company', Arie de Geus talks of decision-making as a learning process. In this model, the process of conversation that he recommends for all decision-making events is outlined.

In addition to scenario planning, futurists sometimes use a variety of other techniques. We outline nine of the most popular, providing short descriptions of what they are and how they work.

A brief look at some of the principal benefits of effective scenario planning.

In 'The Sixth Sense', Kees van der Heijden presents a detailed strategy for implementing a scenario planning process. His ideas are outlined in this short article.

This very short article provides general guidelines for creating a successful scenario. They are based on the model developed by Idon, the international strategy consultants.

In his best-selling book, 'The Art of the Long View', Peter Schwartz advocates a basic eight-step process for those embarking upon a scenario planning project. This article outlines Schwartz’s advice.

Assumption Based Planning (ABP) is a planning and decision-making tool that seeks to identify and bring to attention all possible assumptions inherent in the plans of an organisation or individual in order to prepare for any unwelcome surprises that may be lingering on the horizon.

This article looks at the services offered by the Global Business Network, a world-renowned consultancy based in California, which specialises in scenario planning and future management.

An article outlining the lessons from the Mont Fleur Scenarios used to focus public and political attention on the direction South Africa should take in the wake of the dismantling of Apartheid.

Royal Dutch/Shell was instrumental in bringing scenarios to the attention of the business world. This article looks at how this was achieved and its legacy for today’s organisations.